Sobel's Wyndham preview: Henley could avenge last year's meltdown (2023)

When we're not looking for predictive analytics for players in specific tournaments, we're often looking for narratives that suggest who might do well. Few narratives are more relevant than overall 'motivation' and this week should provide plenty of motivated participants.

Believe it or not, we've finally reached the 46th and final regular season event on the current PGA TOUR schedule, meaning one last chance at the Wyndham Championship for those trying to retain their gaming privileges and earn a spot to earn at FedEx. . Cup playoffs starting next week.

Entering a tournament to possibly keep your job certainly seems to be the biggest motivator we'll see all year. And yet, looking back over the past three seasons, the so-called Bubble Boys often turn that motivation into results.

Let's look at the players who were between 120 and 130.enterthe last event in each of these three seasons, starting in 2019:

Only Garnett and Kizzire made the top 30 in this group, but it's important to note that both had one thing in common: they had won the previous season. That means they were only playing for playoff spots, not their TOUR cards.

Here is 2020:

Once again only two players close, this time inside the top-40; Again, both Kim and Johnson were exempt due to previous wins.

Also in 2021:

There were some stronger results last year, but only one better than 15 and that was Scott, who was obviously already exempt.

Overall, the 33 players on either side of the bubble have had just four top 10 finishes over the past three years, each by a player who had already earned their card. There were 25 results outside of the top 30, including 14 missed cuts, over 40% of all players in cap.

Well, maybe all of this can be easily explained with this logic: players with a rating of 120-130 were rated so low because they didn't play their best golf, so we shouldn't expect too much.

Or maybe we can look at these numbers and conclude that motivation alone isn't enough to invest in those trying to hold onto their cards and/or make the playoffs.

This week's group, 120-130 on the eligibility list (which does not include players suspended from LIV), consists of the following players: Nick Taylor, Chesson Hadley, Kramer Hickok, Rickie Fowler, Matt Wallace, Austin Smotherman, Max McGreevy, Danny Willett, Justin Lower, Nick Hardy, and Cameron Champ.

None of the above results mean that we should completely eliminate these guys, especially those who were previously exempt, but there's certainly a trend here that tells us players need something more than motivational fuel to climb the ranks.

Let's take a look at this week's tips, focusing on those who aren't worried about a bubble that big.

A player who wins the tournament.

Russel Henley (+3000)

At last year's Wyndham, Henley became the first player since Emanuele Canonica at the 2001 Nissan Open to complete a hit and still fail to make the top five. Back then, Robert Allenby beat five other players in a playoff on the Riviera, including golf king Dennis Paulson and a guy named Brandel Chamblee.

A year ago, Henley converted a three-shot lead over 54 holes into a final round of 71, missing a short try at the last hole and finishing one shot before a six-man playoff. His putting isn't on fire right now, having the worst number of shots won on greens of any top 25 in last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic. Still, he finished the T-10 thanks to a performance from tee to green that lagged behind lone winner Tony Finau.

Also, what I really like about the Henley is that it probably has some gas left in the tank. At a point in the season when most players are exhausted, Henley has just played his first non-major event in 12 weeks. His schedule last year included three non-big starts during that time. He's obviously been preparing for the home stretch and may feel he needs to be a little fresher to avoid a repeat of the final round of this event. I like the idea behind it, I hope it's worth it.

Possible choices for unique options.

Webb Simpson (+2000)

Come on, you didn't expect to see that name in this week's preview?

Seasoned readers know that I really only have one strict rule when it comes to golf betting: If a player names one of their children after the sponsor of the tournament, they play with them, no questions asked. Until the day we see a young AT&T Spieth or Waste Management Scheffler or even Genesis Schauffele (or, ahem, LIV Golf Bedminster Stenson), I'm not sure anyone but Simpson qualifies for that rule.

It's been a strange year for Webb, who has struggled with a few injuries and has not finished in the top 10 in 14 starts. He looked well-prepared last week, opening with a 66, but three finishes in the 70s, when everyone was behind, finished with a T-69.

So why should we think that will change this week? Because here it changes again and again for him.

In 13 career games, Simpson has an incredible nine top-10 finishes, he has lost 180 points after 50 rounds. He is the top moneymaker with $3.7 million in winnings, which is $800,000 more than the next player.

Simpson may not be able to repeat his previous success this week, but if you're playing an OAD and haven't saved Simpson for that week, you're probably doing it wrong.

Shane Lowry (+1200) and Adam Scott (+2500)

That's the point in the season where you start looking at the players you haven't used for OAD picks and you're like, "How did I get to so many events without playing this guy?"

I'm not necessarily defending Lowry or Scott this week, here are other players listed that I like better, but I can certainly understand the conundrum if you have one of them sitting among your available players and I don't want to let that whole season go by, without marking it.

They've had a couple of misses each, mixed in with a title shot at Wyndham when Lowry finished T7 five years ago and Scott disappointingly lost in those playoffs last year.

Aaron Wise (+4000) und Keith Mitchell (+4000)

There are few players I've bet on more or played in more DFS lineups than Wise and Mitchell, who I still believe have value relative to their respective talent levels. Wise is currently ranked 40th in the OWGR and Mitchell is 55th, but I wouldn't be surprised if they both climbed into the top 20 in a short period of time.

My point here is twofold:

1. If you agree with this assessment of these two players, it could be worth using one of them before it's too late.
2. Even if it's not these guys, we all have some players that we bet on too much and maybe like a little bit too much.

If you still have them available for the OAD and are playing them this week, there's no point in keeping them any longer.

Davis Riley (+5000)

I'm listing the rookie in the OAD games here, but actually I just wanted to preview him somewhere to note that his starting price of 50-1 is the same as Jason Day! - it seems players are begging us to take it. Maybe it's just another dirty trick, but even after a few MCs, this number is probably worth playing against this type of field.

A player in the top five.

Will Zalatoris (+275 for top 5)

Last week it was a slow start for Zalatoris, and no, I'm not bitter, says the guy who previewed this as a definite move.

Still, he improved several shots in each of the last two rounds, peaking at 65 on Sunday. This should certainly get you going into familiar surroundings with some momentum.

"It's a home game in a way considering I went to Wake Forest and obviously that's the part of the season you prepare for and play five games in a row to finish the season," he said him after the last lap. "I'm young, I can handle it."

As I wrote last week, it won't be long before I win at this level. It didn't happen in Detroit, but like Simpson, Brandt Snedeker and Patrick Reed, this tournament could serve as Zalatoris' first title.

Top 10

A player in the top 10.

Brian Harman (+350 for top 10)

At 35 and ranked 172nd for distance covered, Harman remains a fine, insightful player whose overall record might surprise those who weren't paying attention. He has five top-10 finishes from 18 games this year, including two of the last three.

This event was certainly all or nothing, with a little nothing trumping all, but I'll look beyond the six MCs in nine games and instead focus on the top 10, which at least proves you can succeed here if the game is over. it's on

Top 20

A player in the top 20.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+140)

In his only start at Wyndham two years ago, Bez opened with a 71 but followed with a score of 64-69-68 to finish 37th.

Today, the South African not only looks like an improved player, but one who feels more comfortable competing on the PGA TOUR every week. In fact, he's earned top-20 tickets in four of his last seven starts and won shots in every major category in that range except greens, which are his usual bread and butter. It's true: last year he would have finished third in this category if he had enough starts, but this season he's 117th.

That doesn't take me too far from him; This is not a Viktor Hovland situation when he misses with an iron. With every other club in the bag doing their thing lately I like him for another top 20 if not within this number.

Top 30

A player in the top 30.

Greyson Sigg, Michael Gligic, Alex Smalley, Mark Hubbard

Why am I listing all these guys for a top 30 game? Because of the similarities.

Prior to last week, Sigg was in the top 30 in four consecutive games; Gligic fell short of that mark, finishing in the top 30 in three and T-31 in the other; and Smalley and Hubbard have been in the top 30 in three of the last four. They all missed the cut last week, but none of them are far from playing solid golf.

While I realize that the top 30 markets are fairly limited, I don't mind splitting these games between the top 20 and top 40 if necessary, as well as a cheaper DFS game at a time.

Top 40

A player in the top 40.

Mateo Ne Smith (+170)

The only people happier than NeSmith about the PGA TOUR's return to a Southeast course are those who support NeSmith, who often plays his best golf in a family-friendly environment.

Granted, that didn't mean much this time as he only had one T42 and two MC in three career starts, but he's a better player compared to previous seasons, as evidenced by eight top-40 finishes from 18 starts. . This is a 44.4% success rate, which disproves the implied probability of these probabilities.

Likewise, it doesn't bother me as a low-end DFS game with potentially low traits based on the previous results here.

A secure plug and play option for DFS.

Si Woo Kim

Let's not think about it too much. I've written about Simpson before, perhaps the only player with a better Sedgefield record than Si Woo, but I actually like Kim better this week, especially for DFS purposes.

In his last five outings here, Kim has a win, a second, a third and a fifth, and he happened to come off a T14 in Detroit last weekend. His love of Pete Dye's courses has long been documented, to the point that he's probably marked them on his calendar by now, but we can start to think of him as a Donald Ross expert. It's always been a top-notch move, ever since his PLAYERS Championship win that seemed to come out of nowhere.

But lately, he's also become a high-walking guy. Despite a streak of three straight MCs, Si Woo's consistency has improved significantly over last year, making him an attractive lineup anchor for his price point this week.

DFS-Totale

Justin Lower/BoHoag

If you're spending less for a budget player that allows you to play with some bigger names, then expectations should be set pretty low. In other words, you're basically going to clip and play the weekend.

Lower and Hoag have done just that recently, cashing checks in four of their last five games. Those building 2-3 stud lineups this week are going to need some pay relief and these guys have been doing a good job of providing that lately.

A player who scores low on Thursday.

Harald Varner III (+3500)

In his last five starts at the event, HV3 has a 64.8 first-round points average, including 62 two years ago when he shared FRL honors with Tom Hoge and Roger Sloan. On two of those occasions he finished in the top 10 due to his good start; in the other three it is outside the top 50.

As is often the case, I see Varner as a one-round investment rather than a tournament play. For a man who seems to be such a regular in the first-round leaderboard, it's a little surprising that he's ranked 100th on first-round average this season, but is 65-66 in the last five games. Once again he proves that he can download. on a random day.

matchmaker

A player who should beat comparable players.

Tom Kim (+4500)

According to my Twitter Spaces (and real life) friend Rob Bolton of PGATOUR.com, the man named Joohyung has requested that we officially refer to him as Tom. Now that we're, um, all on board, let's get some match-up tickets, too.

When a young player like Kim comes on the scene, one of two things can happen: either the books spot talent right away and underestimate it, or they don't and hang around for too long. We're looking at the latter now, as the 37th player in the world has higher odds this week than some players whose rankings are twice as high.

Now that Kim has turned his temporary special membership into a full-time ticket for next season thanks to his seventh-place finish last week, he's playing with the proverbial house money we're happy to see. I don't mind spending some on rights and support, but I think the best plan of attack is to play more money against those who are clearly not that excited.

also get votes

Billy Horschel (+1,400), Corey Conners (+2,500), Kevin Kisner (+4,000), Sebastián Muñoz (+4,500), Adam Svensson (+8,000), Callum Tarren (+13,000), David Lipsky (+15,000), Brandon Wu (+18,000), Hayden Buckley (+18,000), Doctor Redman (+30,000)