Wyndham Championship golf expert picks, first round predictions (2023)

We have concluded our best bets on the Wyndham Championship. Of course, that means it's time to play darts.

Despite failing to capitalize on the leader's first-round bid last week, we sweated hard with Lee Hodges (100/1) finishing two shots off the lead. This week I again established four leading players after the first round based on a combination ofrelevant statisticsand history of the course.

As it stands, four players - Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Webb Simpson and Will Zalatoris - are some of the favorites to lead at +3100 after the first round.

With that in mind, here are my top four first-round leader bets for the Wyndham Championship. All quotes courtesy ofBookmaker Fandueland are reflective at the time of writing.

Also read:Wyndham Championship Match Betting

Ersrunden-Leader Law No. 1 – Russell Henley (+4200)

I am completely on board with the Henley train this week, I have backed it both a derivative and a headline, so why not invest in the first round leader as well?

In his last starting 24 turns on drives under 7,200 yards, Henley is modeling the overall win on the field. He narrows the show down to the last 12 rounds of his and Henley's still the man of the match.

In this latest extrapolation, Henley ranks first in birdies or better earned, first in SG: Par 4 and seventh in SG: Approach. Plus, Henley ranks 11th in three-punch avoidance during that time, another good indicator that he could go deeper on Thursday.

Henley also took Wyndham past the first round last year before finishing seventh. After all, this season he's fifth on tour in first-round standings and first field in SG: Total in his last starting 12 rounds on drives under 7,200 yards.

Based on these trends, I'm a little surprised you don't see Henley at the top of the board. For me, I will support it up to +3700.

First Leader-Wette No. 2 – Harold Varner III (+5000)

Let's support another ex-FRL at Sedgefield CC, shall we?

Varner has two top-10 finishes in his last five appearances at the track, finishing tied for first after Thursday in 2020. Additionally, Varner III has shot five consecutive sub-par opening rounds at this track and was within only two strokes from the opening. . Round rhythm in 2017.

As far as his statistical model goes, Varner III is sixth overall in his last starting 12 rounds before jumping to second in the projected 24 rounds. In this latest model alone he is first in SG: Approach, third in birdies won or better, and seventh in SG: Par 4's.

Also, while he ranks 43rd in avoiding three shots along, he's also third in field goal attempts from 10 to 15 feet. Assuming his elite irons show up, I'm not too concerned about his previous ranking.

For all these reasons, 50/1 seems like a solid price for the Varner III in North Carolina.

First Round Leader #3: Joel Dahmen (+7500)

Dahmen doesn't have the best price track record here, not higher than 42nd in three matches, but his underlying stats suggest he's a good bet in this market.

In my statistical projection, Dahmen is twelfth overall in his last 24 opening laps of qualifying. But after his last 12 first rounds on drives under 7,200 yards, he's second overall in the field.

In this latest model, Dahmen is stable in all respects. He ranks 10th in fairways won, 17th in SG: Approach, second in GIR won and fifth in birdies won or better. He is also 18 in both par-4 measures and a top 30 club 5-to-10 and 10-to-15.

Also, not too long ago, Dahmen came close to breaking the pace at the US Open and is in the top 15 heading into the first round this season (T-32 overall on tour).

Although he never led here after the first round, he shot a below-average round in all three matches. For these reasons I am willing to take a traveler at 75/1.

Ersrunden-Leader Law No. 4 – Nick Taylor (+11000)

Similar to Hodges last week, this bet is something of a guess.

Taylor hasn't been playing well in the early rounds of late (89 in my 12-round pick), but hopefully a familiar course will help him rediscover his former form, as he's ranked 18th in my 24-round pick.

In his last three Wyndham Championship appearances. Taylor has two top-10 finishes and has played under-par in every opening round. Plus, he was just three shots off Henley's pace in 2021 and has two first-round 65s in his last three starts.

Model-wise, his putting leaves a LOT to be desired: 116 from 5-10 feet, 103 avoiding three-putts, but he's noticeably above average on the dance floor. Over the last 24 opening rounds, Taylor has ranked 13th in fairways won, 26th in SG:Approach, 7th in GIR won and 18th in birdies won or better.

Also, it's ranked 23rd between 10 and 15 feet, so maybe it's notas bad ashow we think in this department.

Either way, 110/1 is a great price... as long as he can maintain his record of making a lot of birdies.