Wyndham Championship odds: field view, key 2022 stats (2023)

For most golf fans, the most anticipated event of the year is probably a major event. Not for me. I prefer the Wyndham Championship. After the entire 2022 PGA TOUR season has been waited for, the main event is finally here as the PGA TOUR travels to Greensboro, North Carolina to the Sedgefield Country Club for the final PGA TOUR event before the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Let's start our weekly preview with a look at the Wyndham Championship odds.

For the unknowns, ahead of the 2021 Wyndham Championship, I made an infamous guarantee that Kevin Kisner would win. It was a controversial hire at the time, considering he was bottom of the rankings at WGC FedEx St. Louis. Jew the week before. His attempt to play sandbag to increase his betting odds the following week became known as "Kisnering".

Kisner Assurance came to me while vacationing in the Bahamas. In an effort to achieve that same moment of clarity, I headed north into the serene landscape of Lake Placid in search of answers for Wyndham 2022. Thankfully, a clear player fits onto the field in the Kisner mold this year . So we will again bet with conviction.

The Wyndham Championship really lends itself to safe betting. Its high concentration of eight par 4s ranging from 400 to 450 yards, channeled approach shots ranging from 100 to 175 yards, and Donald-Ross designed nuanced and undulating Bermuda greens delivered repeatable results for precision shooting specialists. It's a great week to lean heavily on price history and course clearing. And like last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic, it should reward elite putter and wedge players with a special focus on precision driving and Bermuda putting. We will review the key facts and information about Sedgefield CC for the 2022 Wyndham Championship.

WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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THE WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE AT A GLANCE

With the FedEx Cup Playoffs looming to begin next week, most elite players have decided to skip this week and rest ahead of the three-week playoffs that begin in Memphis. Instead, we'll see a high concentration of mid-to-low level players who will either compete for positions or just a spot in the top 125.

However, the Wyndham Championship is missing a headliner without OWGR's top 10 playersWill Zalatoris, Billy Horschel e Sungjae ImjShane Lowryrepresent a solid contingent of the top 25OWGROther notable players on the field areTyrrell Hatton, Webb Simpson, Corey Conners, Kevin Kisner, Russel HenleyjHarald Varner III.

Past Wyndham Championship winners returning this week include Kisner, Jim Herman, JT Poston, Si Woo Kim, Davis Love III, Camilo Villegas,SimpsonjRyan Moore.

INTRODUCTION TO SEDGEFIELD COUNTRY CLUB

At 7,131 yards, Sedgefield CC is the quintessential positional shortstop on the PGA TOUR. It rewards accuracy over distance and requires a repeated dose of wedges and mid-iron approaches. Top 10 SG:TOT players at Sedgefield CC areWebb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Henrik Stenson, Jim Herman, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae ImjDenny McCarthy.This clearly shows that the distance traveled does not matter on this route. Elite placement skills separate players from the field.

how does it break

As a par 70, Sedgefield CC has a standard combination of two par 5s, four par 3s and 12 par 4s. The 7,131 yards hole for hole are just below the TOUR average. What makes the Sedgefield CC so unique and repeatable for top horses is its focus on short par 4s. Eight par 4s measure between 400 and 450 yards. This, in turn, resulted in an average of nearly 30% approach shots from 150-175 yards, well above the TOUR average.

First 10 on par 4: 400-450 areAdam Svensson, JT Poston, Tyrrell Hatton, Brendon Todd,Military,Will Zalatoris, Andrew Putnam, Ryan Armour, Aaron BaddeleyjJoohyun Kim.From the channeled range of 100-175 yards, the top 10 are in close to holeScott Stallings, Mark Hubbard, Justin Rose, Russel Henley, Chase Seiffert, Adam Long, Ben Kohles, Sam Ryder,zatoris eRyan Moore.

In addition to the par 4, the course offers two very accessible par 5s and two short par 3s of less than 175 yards. Historically, most years, competitors have capitalized and scored in what is commonly known as the birdie festival.

Only six holes at Sedgefield CC average above par. These include the two 500+ yard par 4s and two 225+ yard par 3s. The 18th hole, a 507 yard par 4, is the most challenging hole on the course. It has produced some very exciting Sunday finals, most recently the 2021 six-man playoff.

Current Notable Features and Facts

A similar story to the one we just saw in last week's Rocket Mortgage Championship, Sedgefield CC features a simple layout that should produce a win score close to -20 and reward the player who picks up the best putter. Compared to other courses on the PGA TOUR, Sedgefield CC has been ranked as the easiest course for SG:APP every year since 2015. Elite iron players should lower these pins for birdie opportunities. But the average iron player can still handle weeks of intense concentration.

With angled fairways narrower than the TOUR average and difficult Bermuda roughness, there is a great emphasis on keeping the ball in the fairway. This drastically diminished any long hitter advantage, with forced layups everywhere. Sedgefield CC has consistently ranked in the top 10 for off-field scoring difficulty. Workers who can maintain control of their ball off the tee should have an advantage on the field.

SEDGEFIELD COUNTRY CLUB COURSE SPECIFICATIONS

• Yards: 7.131
• Par: 70 (4x 3s / 12x 4s / 2x 5s)
• Green: Bermuda
• Architect: Donald Ross (renovation by Kris Spence in 2007)
• Historical cutting line: -2
• Four-round average: -8 ('21), -8 ('20), -10 ('19), -10 ('18), -8 ('17),
• Ergänzende Cursos: Waialae CC, Colonial CC, Detroit GC, Harbour Town, East Lake, Sea Island Resort, TPC River Highlands
• Ganadores anteriores: Kevin Kisner -15 ('21), Jim Herman -21 ('20), JT Poston -22 ('19), Brandt Snedeker -21 ('18), Henrik Stenson -22 ('17)
• Hole-by-hole breakdown:

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE STRUCTURES

As with Donald Ross' Detroit Golf Club, I believe long putting, particularly on the greens of Bermuda, is a requirement for success at this event. I'm not going to attribute this to a week where any player can pick up a scratched racquet and win. Combine that emphasis with wedge-shooting focus and superior driving accuracy, and we're starting to see a very repeatable list of names in the running year after year.

Course progress has proven very indicative of future success at this event. The unconditional course asWebb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Billy HorscheljKevin Kisnereach fared well regardless of previous form. This group alone has achieved 22 top 10 finishes and four wins in the last eight years.

Of this group, Simpson stands out as the king of Sedgefield CC. He has finished in the top 10 in 10 of 13 career appearances, including a recent streak of five consecutive finishes of T7 or better. It is one of the most dominant, if not the most dominant, performances in the history of the course by an individual on the PGA TOUR.

15 players have not missed it here in the last five years with at least three appearances: Simpson, Horschel,Denny McCarthy, Sungjae Im,kisser,Harold Varner III, Harris English, Roger Sloan, Richy Werenski, Mark Hubbard, CT Pan, Scott Piercy, Andrew Landry, Russell KnoxjMackenzie Hughes.

Only nine players have had multiple top-10 finishes over the past five years: Simpson, Horschel, Kisner, Ryan Armour, Rory Sabbatini,Military, Russell HenleyjNickTaylor.

course structure

I always give a lot of track history to my weekly models, but the correlation here is as strong on the short, easy courses of Bermuda as it is on any course on the PGA TOUR. So this week I'm going to make a significant contribution to the history of the circuits, ignoring the results in driver-heavy or hard-to-score locations.

We have many free options for Sedgefield CC, but Harbor Town, Waialae CC, and Sea Island Resort stand out as the top three. They all come together under 7,200 yards, Bermuda greens, easy scoring conditions, an emphasis on precision driving, and the overlapping success of players like Webb Simpson, Russell Henley, and Kevin Kisner.

I also like TPC River Highlands, Innisbrook Resort and Colonial CC for angular position courses that emphasize accuracy and precision with the short and mid irons. Detroit Golf Club and East Lake have the same connection to Donald Ross and are also worth a closer look, particularly as a benchmark for placement of similarly designed greens.

Combine the performance on this list and the top 10 players in the history of the venue, here are Henley, Kisner,Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman,Simpsons,Brendon Todd,earpiece,Shane LowryjJustinRosa.

IMPORTANT STATISTICS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP
• streets won
• About 100-175
• SG: Putting (L36) / SG: P (Bermuda) / 3-putt avoidance
• Birdies or better win
• Par 4 Rating: 400-450 yards
• SG: Ballschlag (<7200 Yards)
• Course history and supplementary course

Although Sedgefield CC has proven to be the easiest course on the PGA TOUR to hit approach shots, it remains a point-and-shoot course. The best iron players on the field usually compete against each other. The top 10 SG:APP players featured this week areWill Zalatoris, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Aaron Wise, Harold Varner III, Mark Hubbard, Luke Donald, Corey Conners, Lee HodgesjScott Stallings.

While SG:OTT has proven relatively inconsequential in this event, Fairways Gained's strength goes a long way in positioning competitors for scoring opportunities. The top 10 driving accuracy this week areChez Reavie, Ryan Armour, Brendon Todd, Martin Laird, Satoshi Kodaira, Joohyung Kim, Brian Stuard, Jim Herman, Ryan MoorejAndre Putnam.

Sedgefield CC's recipe for success simply boils down to hitting fairways and greens with great regularity and then putting the putter down. Overall SG:P, SG:P (Bermuda), and 3-putt avoidance were highly predictive. The top 10 weighted putters in these main categories areBrian Gay, Tyrrell Hatton, Chesson Hadley, Kelly Kraft, Vincent Whaley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Rose, Adam Long, Denny McCarthy eLowry.

Looking at these three main categories of Driving Accuracy, SG:APP and Weighted Placement, only 12 players each rank above average: Lowry,Russel Henley,JustinRosa,Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Adam Long,Hubbard,Webb Simpson, JT Poston,Bezuidenhout,Hank LebiodajDoctor Redmann.Focusing on key SG categories: APP, Comp Course History, Fairways Gained, Prox 100-175 and SG:P (Bermuda), five players rank above average: Lowry, Henley, Rose, Armor and Bezuidenhout.

correlations

Looking at this week's correlation charts, there is a clear emphasis on approach and placement play compared to the TOUR average.SG: APP, full close, SG: short gamejS.G.: Peach making significant leaps within the top 10 in importance at Sedgefield CC. Also, the next stat is from the top 10 in Sedgefield CC3-Stroke Dodge, a testament to Donald Ross' highly undulating and sloping greens. On the other hand,Par 3 Score, Par 5 ScorejPar 4: 450-500make the biggest step backwards in meaning.

Only 11 players on the field are above average in each of the 10 stat categories above:Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Scott Stallings, Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, Mark Hubbard, CT Pan, Sebastian Munoz, Christiaan BezuidenhoutjDavid Riley.

BEST PLAYER: DENNY MCCARTHY

It's unfair that any player should have to replace Kevin Kisner as the next Wyndham Championship standout. While I had fun making sure Kisner would win the 2021 Wyndham and then watching each domino fall into place, you can't force a game of conviction after a game of conviction.

But.

We have a candidate who is just as up to the task as Kisner. So I can honestly say what I think about itDenny McCarthywill win. I've had my eye on McCarthy at this location for about two months now. That choice depended on one final element to make it official: an unsuccessful cut to its previous launch.

The unique hole design, which channels a high volume of short shots, does not suggest the Wyndham Championship shape immediately above. Kisner missed a total of 16 shots in his two starts before his 2021 win. Jim Herman has missed 13 shots in his three previous starts. JT Poston also lost prior to his 2019 win, so McCarthy fits into the trend of having a short week and key areas of focus ahead of the Wyndham Championship.

The next requirement for becoming a Wyndham Championship candidate is a history of previous courses. The formula of precision off the tee, precise wedges and expert placement on the nuances of the Donald Ross Bermuda greens has proven repeatable year after year. Like Kisner, McCarthy has an impeccable record at Sedgefield CC, a perfect 4-of-4 in cuts. It finished no worse than the T36 with top 15 finishes on each of its last two trips. In all four of his appearances to date, McCarthy has won the course in driving accuracy, focus and placement, the key areas needed at Sedgefield.

Hot 2022 for McCarthy

Looking ahead to 2022, McCarthy's form at the top now looks better than ever. He is in the midst of a career campaign in 2022 that includes three top five finishes from his last five appearances. In any Donald Ross course, I will place special emphasis on long-term skills. The nuanced complexes at Sedgefield will expose underperforming putters on the course. Putting is McCarthy's forte. He hasn't missed a shot since the Sony Open in January.

In addition to dominating the greens (#1 in SG:P and SG:Short Game, #8 in SG:P [Bermuda]), McCarthy's overall game also improved. He is in the top 30 in PR: 400-450, Birdies or Better Won, Fairways Gained and Prox: 150-175.

Though less of a pure putting competition than Rocket Mortgage, top putters have consistently excelled at this event than any other on the TOUR. With that in mind, I'm excited to play the best stat putter of 2022 on your favorite Bermuda green surface. If there's one event that would make the most sense for Denny McCarthy's first career win on the PGA TOUR, it's the 2022 Wyndham Championship. I'm betting with confidence regardless of where the odds open on Monday.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE 2022 WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP

After Rocket Mortgage, we have another Donald Ross competition with wedge fest in store this week. Unlike last week, however, this course offers a premium on the fairways that will dampen any advantage for the bombers and lower the expected winning score to a more modest range in the high teens. The Wyndham Championship also creates additional drama for fringe players looking to win their FedEx Cup playoff tickets and secure their PGA TOUR tickets for the following season. With at least a dozen LIV defectors currently in the top 125, that makes this last week a little less dramatic. Players who exceed this mark will continue to be used as substitutes for banned players.

Considering all the field profiles, I'm leaning towards the group of players below. Of course I'm also looking for the Wyndham Championship 2022 odds. I've broken down the list by predicted odds/prize levelDraftReyes.

In my model I emphasizeSG: APP, Competitive Course History, Par 4 400-450, Best Earned and Weighted Birdie or Putt (L36, Bermuda and 3-put avoidance),followed by a more balanced mix ofSG: Ball shot (<7,200 yards), fairways wonjNext 100-175.

favorite models

Shane Lowrytakes the credit of #1 overall for this week's model. It ranks above average on all key metrics and is in the top 10 in the primary stat categories SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: Ball Striking (<7,200 yards). There wasn't a significant gap between Lowry and the next player in assist, but a T23 and a T7 in his last three Wyndham Championship appearances make him an interesting consideration at the top of the frame.

According to Lowry, the remaining 10 top features of my modelRussell Henley, Adam Svensson, Corey Conners, Justin Rose, Scott Stallings, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Sungjae ImjKevin Streelmann.

When the odds open Monday, I'll be centering my map on the presumed winner of the 2022 Wyndham ChampionshipDenny McCarthybut it will also leave room for the likes of Lowry, Henley and Svensson if the odds are favourable. Check back later this week for more updates and good luck navigating the 2022 Wyndham Championship odds!

consequencesThe lines

2022 WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS CHART

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